About
Bitcoin by the Numbers publishes charts and on-chain data for Bitcoin — the four-year cycle, the power law, valuation, volatility, and what is happening to the money you price it in.
Why it exists
Most Bitcoin charts are built to make a case. The popular "Bitcoin versus global M2" chart, for example, shifts the money supply forward by somewhere between ten and fifteen weeks until the lines agree — and no two publishers use the same offset. That is curve fitting presented as analysis.
This site takes the opposite approach. Where two series are compared, both are indexed to 100 and plotted on one axis, with no offset. Where a model is fitted, the method is stated on the page and the fit is computed from public data by code you could run yourself. Where the data has a limitation — patchy coverage, a definition that differs from another source, a projection built on two prior cycles — that limitation is written on the chart's own page rather than left for you to discover.
Where the numbers come from
- Price history — daily series from public market data; the price line on the NUPL chart is from Coin Metrics' Community API.
- On-chain metrics — MVRV, NUPL, SOPR, realized price, hashrate, coin-days destroyed and others, from bitcoin-data.com.
- Macro — US public debt from the US Treasury, M2 from the Federal Reserve (FRED), government debt and GDP from the IMF.
Everything is rebuilt on a daily schedule. Metrics show the date they were built; the homepage price is live.
The full accounting — every source, how current each series is, and what is known to be wrong with it — is on its own page.
Who writes this
One person, writing under @BTCByNumbers rather than a name. The relevant background is building and running automated trading systems: reading market data at scale, maintaining the pipelines that keep it clean, and — the part that shapes this site most — spending years watching backtests that looked convincing fail in production because a parameter had been tuned until the past agreed with it.
That experience is why the pages here are organised the way they are. The habit of asking "what would this look like if the effect weren't real?" is a professional one, and it is the reason Pi Cycle Top's two missed cycle peaks appear on its own page, and why the most persuasive chart in Bitcoin is one this site refuses to publish.
The pseudonymity is deliberate and worth being upfront about, because it cuts both ways. It means you cannot check the author's credentials — so nothing here asks you to. Every chart publishes the CSV it was drawn from, every method is stated on the page it applies to, and the code that produces both is ordinary Python doing arithmetic you can repeat. The claim is not "trust the author", it is "here are the numbers and here is what was done to them". That is a stronger guarantee than a byline, and it is the only one an anonymous site is entitled to offer.
If a figure here is wrong, say so. Corrections are the messages that get actioned first.
What it is not
It is not advice, not a signal service, and not a forecast. The cycle projection is a naive historical analogue and says so on its own page. If a chart looks like it is telling you what to do, read the method note under it.
It is also not a place that will tell you Bitcoin only goes up. Bitcoin has fallen 84.5%, 83.8% and 76.7% from its cycle peaks, each time taking about a year to bottom, and the drawdown chart is on the site for the same reason the rest of it is.
Last updated .