Bitcoin charts and on-chain data

Metrics above are as of 2026-09-22 and refresh with the daily build. The price is live.

• Hard Money: Why Supply Discipline Is the Whole Argument — What makes money hard — stock-to-flow, why gold worked and cowrie shells didn't, and how Bitcoin's fixed supply differs from every commodity before it.
• How Inflation Taxes Savers on Gains They Never Made — Capital gains tax is charged on nominal gains, not real ones — so you can lose purchasing power and still owe tax. Worked through with numbers.
• Why So Many Bitcoin Indicators Have Stopped Working — Pi Cycle missed the last two tops. MVRV's 3.7 line was never reached. One cause runs through all of them — and it explains what still works.
• The Four-Year Cycle, and Whether It Still Holds — The last three cycles peaked 525, 546 and 534 days after their halving — but gains fell 17.3x to 3.4x to 1.9x. What that means for the pattern.
• Why Bitcoin's Volatility Keeps Falling — Mean 30-day realized volatility has gone from 110% in 2013 to 41% in 2025. The data year by year, three explanations, and the honest caveats.
• Reading On-Chain Valuation: MVRV, NUPL and Realized Price Together — They all rest on one number, so they aren't independent confirmations. How the family fits together, and which half of each signal has survived.
• Bitcoin Priced in Gold: the Hard-Money Cross Rate — With no dollar on either side. Bitcoin's all-time high in gold came in December 2024, ten months before its dollar peak — and that matters.
• Why We Refuse to Publish Lag-Offset Money Supply Charts — The most persuasive chart in Bitcoin shifts M2 forward until the lines agree, and no two publishers use the same offset. What we plot instead.
• What the Forks Tell Us About Changing Bitcoin — Three chains kept the ledger, the holders and the name, and changed one rule. All three lost more than 96% against the original.
• Where Our Numbers Come From — Every source, how current each series is, what is known to be wrong with it, and what this site deliberately does not publish.