Valuation & cycle
Power law, the 4-year cycle, rainbow bands, 200-week MA
The question every chart in this group tries to answer is whether Bitcoin is expensive, and each attacks it from a different direction. MVRV and NUPL compare price against what holders actually paid. The power law and the rainbow compare it against a trend fitted to Bitcoin's own age. The 200-week average compares it against its own recent history, and the 4-year cycle against where it sits in the halving rhythm.
They disagree, and the disagreements are the useful part. The fitted models have drifted well above the market over the last two cycles while the cost-basis measures have compressed toward the middle of their historical ranges — which is a different picture depending on which one you trust. Every page states what its own record actually is, including where it has failed.
- MVRV — Market value ÷ realized value, against price. High = holders deep in profit (frothy); low = undervalued.
- NUPL — Net unrealized profit/loss across supply — euphoria vs capitulation, against price.
- AVIV Z-Score — Valuation z-score (MVRV-Z style), against price. Extremes have marked cycle tops and bottoms.
- NVT Signal — Network value ÷ transaction volume — a P/E-like valuation oscillator.
- Long-Term SOPR — Long-term holders' spent-output profit ratio, against price. Above 1 = selling in profit.
- Pi Cycle Top — When the 111-day MA crosses above 2× the 350-day MA it has historically marked cycle tops.
- Power-Law Rainbow — Price against bands parallel to the power-law fit — a log-log rainbow corridor.
- 200-Week Moving Average — The 200-week MA has historically tracked the cycle floor; price rarely closes below it.
- Realized Price (STH vs LTH) — Cost basis of short- vs long-term holders — key support/resistance in bull and bear markets.
- Long-Term-Holder Supply — Bitcoin held unmoved for 6+ months, against price — conviction supply that isn't for sale.
- 4-Year Cycle — Halving cycle with markers, current progress, and a projection from prior cycles.
- Power Law — Long-term power-law trend on log-log axes with support and resistance.
- The Bitcoin Forks — BCH, BSV and BTG priced in bitcoin — all down 96% or more against it.
Bitcoin, by the numbers
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