Long-Term-Holder Supply

Bitcoin held unmoved for 6+ months, against price — conviction supply that isn't for sale.

Data to 2026-07-24. On-chain metrics are fetched on a rotation, so this can trail the build by a few days.

How to read it

Long-term-holder supply is the share of all bitcoin that hasn't moved in at least six months — coins whose owners weren't shaken out by the last drawdown and haven't sold into the last rally either. A rising line means supply is concentrating into patient hands; a falling one means long-held coins are being spent, whether that's distribution into strength or capitulation into weakness.

How it's calculated

Sum the HODL-wave age bands from 6 months and older. HODL waves split the circulating supply into bands by how long each coin has sat unmoved since its last on-chain transaction.

What it did in past cycles

This is the cleanest counter-cyclical series on the site. It falls into tops and rises into bottoms, without exception across four cycles:

2013-12-04 top — 6.80M, then rising to 9.50M by the January 2015 low
2017-12-16 top — 8.62M, rising to 12.04M by December 2018
2021-11-08 top — 14.17M, rising to 15.02M by November 2022
2025-10-06 top — 15.03M, rising to 15.96M by June 2026

The series reached an all-time high of 16.33M on 2026-07-24. The swings have also flattened markedly: long-term holders released about 2.7M coins into the 2013–15 cycle and roughly 0.85M into the 2021–22 one, on a much larger supply base.

What it doesn't tell you

The conventional long-term-holder threshold is 155 days, not 6 months; the closest band boundary available here runs a little higher than trackers using the exact cutoff. As with every on-chain age metric, an internal wallet shuffle resets a coin's age without any sale taking place, and lost coins that never move are counted the same as deliberate long-term conviction.

The counter-cyclical pattern below is partly mechanical. Coins bought during a rally cannot enter the long-term cohort for six months, so the cohort shrinks into every top and grows into every bottom regardless of intent. The informative part is the amplitude, not the direction.

Reading it with other metrics

Pair it with Long-Term SOPR, which supplies the missing half: this chart shows how many coins the cohort is releasing, SOPR shows whether they are releasing them at a profit or a loss.

Liveliness and the VDD Multiple approach coin age from the coin-days side rather than the supply side, and realized price gives the cohort's cost basis.