VDD Multiple

Data to 2026-09-17. On-chain metrics are fetched on a rotation, so this can trail the build by a few days.

How to read it

The VDD multiple normalises value-days-destroyed against its own trend, so old-coin movement can be compared across eras rather than being swamped by the growth in Bitcoin's price and supply. High readings mean old holders are unusually active relative to normal.

How it's calculated

Value-days-destroyed divided by its longer-run moving average.

What it did in past cycles

Cycle-top readings: 4.33 (2013-12-04), 3.23 (2017-12-16), 1.21 (2021-11-08), 0.93 (2025-10-06). The all-time high of 4.46 came on 2013-04-16, at that year's spring top rather than its December one.

The 2025 peak reading below 1 is the notable entry: old coins were moving at less than their own recent average at the moment price peaked. In 2013 and 2017 the tops were accompanied by conspicuous old-coin distribution; in 2021 much less so, and in 2025 not at all by this measure.

Bottoms: 0.43 (2015-01-14), 1.25 (2018-12-15), 0.66 (2022-11-09), 0.39 (2026-06-30). December 2018 is the outlier — a bear-market low with above-trend old-coin movement, which is what capitulation by patient holders looks like and is consistent with Long-Term SOPR reading 0.42 the same day.

What it doesn't tell you

Same caveat as coin-days destroyed — movement is not sale — compounded by the choice of averaging window, which sets what counts as 'normal' and therefore what looks extreme.

Normalising against a trailing average also means the metric adapts to sustained old-coin spending: if distribution runs for long enough, the baseline rises to meet it and the multiple falls back toward 1 while the behaviour continues unchanged. A slow, persistent distribution is exactly the case this metric is worst at detecting.

And value-days weights by dollar value as well as age, so the same coins moving at a higher price register a larger reading. Part of what looks like increased old-coin activity in a rally is the price of the coins that moved.

Reading it with other metrics

Read it with Long-Term SOPR: VDD says how much old supply moved, SOPR says whether it moved at a profit or a loss. High VDD with SOPR above 1 is distribution into strength; high VDD with SOPR below 1 is capitulation. They mean opposite things and neither number alone distinguishes them.

Coin Days Destroyed is the raw input, useful for identifying which specific day drove a spike.