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The argument behind the numbers.
The charts on this site describe what happened. These essays make the argument the charts are assembled around: that the supply rule is the whole point, that a currency which can be expanded by decree transfers wealth from the people holding it, and that the tax code compounds the transfer by charging you on gains you never made.
Each one is anchored to data published elsewhere on the site, so the claims can be checked against the numbers rather than taken on faith. Where the data does not support a popular version of the argument, that is said explicitly.
- Hard Money: Why Supply Discipline Is the Whole Argument — What makes money hard — stock-to-flow, why gold worked and cowrie shells didn't, and how Bitcoin's fixed supply differs from every commodity before it.
- How Inflation Taxes Savers on Gains They Never Made — Capital gains tax is charged on nominal gains, not real ones — so you can lose purchasing power and still owe tax. Worked through with numbers.
- Why So Many Bitcoin Indicators Have Stopped Working — Pi Cycle missed the last two tops. MVRV's 3.7 line was never reached. One cause runs through all of them — and it explains what still works.
- The Four-Year Cycle, and Whether It Still Holds — The last three cycles peaked 525, 546 and 534 days after their halving — but gains fell 17.3x to 3.4x to 1.9x. What that means for the pattern.
- Why Bitcoin's Volatility Keeps Falling — Mean 30-day realized volatility has gone from 110% in 2013 to 41% in 2025. The data year by year, three explanations, and the honest caveats.
- Reading On-Chain Valuation: MVRV, NUPL and Realized Price Together — They all rest on one number, so they aren't independent confirmations. How the family fits together, and which half of each signal has survived.
- Bitcoin Priced in Gold: the Hard-Money Cross Rate — With no dollar on either side. Bitcoin's all-time high in gold came in December 2024, ten months before its dollar peak — and that matters.
- Why We Refuse to Publish Lag-Offset Money Supply Charts — The most persuasive chart in Bitcoin shifts M2 forward until the lines agree, and no two publishers use the same offset. What we plot instead.
- What the Forks Tell Us About Changing Bitcoin — Three chains kept the ledger, the holders and the name, and changed one rule. All three lost more than 96% against the original.
- Where Our Numbers Come From — Every source, how current each series is, what is known to be wrong with it, and what this site deliberately does not publish.
Bitcoin, by the numbers
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