200-Week Moving Average

The 200-week MA has historically tracked the cycle floor; price rarely closes below it.

Data to 2026-09-22. On-chain metrics are fetched on a rotation, so this can trail the build by a few days.

How to read it

The 200-week moving average is a very slow trend line, covering nearly four years — roughly one halving cycle. Price has historically spent very little time below it, and periods when it has dipped under have coincided with major bear-market lows.

How it's calculated

The mean closing price of the previous 1,400 days, plotted against price on a log axis.

What it did in past cycles

Over the 2,946 days for which both series exist, price closed below the 200-week average on 343 of them, 11.6%. Those days cluster into a small number of distinct episodes:

2020-03-14 → 2020-03-18 — five days, the covid crash
2022-06-16 → 2022-07-18 — 33 days
2022-08-19 → 2023-03-16 — 210 days, the deepest and longest breach in the record
2023-08 → 2023-10 — three short spells totalling about eight weeks
2026-06-24 → 2026-07-03 — ten days

The December 2018 low is the near-miss: price closed at $3,237 against an average of $3,187, touching the line without breaking it. The 2022–23 episode is the one that should temper any 'unbreakable floor' language — price spent seven consecutive months underneath.

What it doesn't tell you

'Price rarely goes below it' is an observation about a fifteen-year history that includes only a handful of bear markets. A long average is also slow to react by construction: it describes where price has been, and cannot tell you when a floor will fail.

'Rarely' also deserves a number, and the number is 11.6% of days — roughly one day in nine, which is more often than the phrase suggests. The floor has held in the sense that every breach so far has been recovered; it has not held in the sense of being seldom tested.

Reading it with other metrics

This is the trend line that adapts, where the rainbow and the power law extrapolate. Reading them together shows what that difference costs: the fitted models drifted away from price over the last two cycles while the trailing average tracked it.

Realized price is the on-chain analogue — a cost-basis floor rather than a price-history one — and the two have marked similar levels at bottoms. Drawdown from ATH puts the breaches in context of how far price had already fallen.