Volatility
Realized volatility, and Bitcoin against gold and the S&P 500
Two related questions: how much Bitcoin moves, and how that compares with the assets it is measured against. Realized volatility carries the headline finding — mean 30-day volatility has fallen from about 110% in 2013 to around 41% in 2025, and the October 2025 cycle peak came with a reading of 27.5%.
Relative performance without relative risk is only half an argument, which is why gold, the S&P 500 and Bitcoin priced in gold sit in the same group. Bitcoin has outperformed both over any long window and done so with several times the volatility, and both facts belong in the same sentence.
- Bitcoin Volatility — Annualised realized volatility over 30 and 90 days, back to 2012. The long-run trend is down: about 110% in 2013, roughly 41% in 2025.
- Bitcoin vs Gold — Bitcoin against gold since 2014, both indexed to 100 on one log axis — the oldest hard money against the newest.
- Bitcoin Priced in Gold — How many ounces of gold one bitcoin buys — the hard-money cross rate, with no dollar in the middle.
- Bitcoin vs S&P 500 — Bitcoin against the S&P 500, both indexed to 100 from a common start.
Bitcoin, by the numbers
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