Bitcoin return seasonality
Month-over-month % return by year — green up, red down, intensity by size. The bottom row averages each calendar month across all years.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | -12.6% | +11.7% | -15.3% |
| 2015 | -32.1% | +16.9% | -3.9% | -3.3% | -2.5% | +14.3% | +8.2% | -19.2% | +2.6% | +33.1% | +20.1% | +14.1% |
| 2016 | -14.4% | +18.7% | -4.8% | +7.6% | +18.5% | +26.7% | -7.2% | -7.9% | +6.0% | +15.0% | +6.4% | +29.2% |
| 2017 | +0.7% | +21.6% | -9.2% | +25.8% | +69.6% | +8.5% | +15.9% | +63.6% | -7.8% | +49.1% | +58.2% | +38.3% |
| 2018 | -27.8% | +1.7% | -32.9% | +32.5% | -18.9% | -14.5% | +21.5% | -9.5% | -5.9% | -4.6% | -36.4% | -6.8% |
| 2019 | -7.6% | +11.5% | +6.5% | +30.3% | +60.2% | +26.2% | -6.8% | -4.5% | -13.9% | +10.9% | -17.7% | -5.0% |
| 2020 | +30.0% | -8.0% | -25.1% | +34.5% | +9.3% | -3.4% | +23.9% | +3.2% | -7.7% | +27.8% | +42.4% | +47.8% |
| 2021 | +14.2% | +36.3% | +30.5% | -2.0% | -35.4% | -6.1% | +18.8% | +13.3% | -7.2% | +40.0% | -7.0% | -18.8% |
| 2022 | -16.9% | +12.2% | +5.4% | -17.2% | -15.7% | -37.8% | +18.0% | -14.1% | -3.1% | +5.5% | -16.2% | -3.6% |
| 2023 | +39.8% | +0.0% | +23.0% | +2.8% | -7.0% | +12.0% | -4.1% | -11.3% | +4.0% | +28.6% | +8.8% | +12.1% |
| 2024 | +0.8% | +43.7% | +16.6% | -15.0% | +11.3% | -7.1% | +3.1% | -8.7% | +7.4% | +10.9% | +37.4% | -3.1% |
| 2025 | +9.6% | -17.6% | -2.2% | +14.1% | +11.1% | +2.4% | +8.0% | -6.5% | +5.4% | -3.9% | -17.5% | -3.2% |
| 2026 | -10.2% | -14.8% | +1.8% | +11.8% | -3.6% | -20.4% | +7.3% | +25.1% | +10.0% | — | — | — |
| Avg | -1.2% | +10.2% | +0.5% | +10.2% | +8.1% | +0.0% | +8.9% | +1.9% | -0.8% | +16.6% | +7.5% | +7.1% |
How to read it
Each cell is one month's return in one year — green for a gain, red for a loss, with intensity scaled by size. The bottom row averages each calendar month across every year in the record, which is the row people usually come here for.
How it's calculated
Month-over-month percentage change in the closing price, computed from the daily series. The average row is the arithmetic mean of that month's returns across all complete years.
What it did in past cycles
Averaged across every year in the record, the calendar months rank like this: October is the strongest at +16.6%, followed by February and April at +10.2%, July at +8.9% and May at +8.1%. The weakest are September at −1.8% and January at −1.2%, with June and August essentially flat at 0.0% and +0.1%.
'Uptober' is the one that has entered folklore, and it is the largest number in the table. It is also assembled from roughly a dozen Octobers, several of which fell in the eighteen-month post-halving window when almost every month was positive. Strip the cycle position out and much of the seasonal effect is likely to be cycle effect wearing a calendar.
September's reputation as the weak month survives the same test slightly better, being negative on average and unremarkable in both directions — which is to say the evidence for it is that not much happens.
What it doesn't tell you
Each column holds barely a dozen observations, most of them from a market that no longer exists in the same form. With samples that small, a single extreme month moves the average enough to invent a pattern, and Bitcoin has no shortage of extreme months.
The averages are also arithmetic, which flatters volatile series: a +50% month and a −50% month average to zero while actually leaving you down 25%. And any real seasonality that were both genuine and this obvious would be arbitraged away by people who can read the same table.
Treat this page as a curiosity and a description of the past. It is the one chart on this site most likely to be mistaken for a trading edge, which is exactly why the caveats are longer than the method.
Reading it with other metrics
The 4-year cycle page is the confounder for everything on this page. Read them together and ask whether a strong month is seasonal or simply well-placed in the halving rhythm.
Realized volatility gives the denominator these averages lack: a +8% average month means something quite different when typical monthly moves are ±20%.
Bitcoin, by the numbers
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